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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

UEFA Champions League · Round 3
Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
20:00Wed
77%
10%
Draw13%

Real Madrid are the stronger side

WLWWW

last 5 games

WLWWL

last 5 games

Stadium
Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid · 83,186 seats
Managers
Jose Mourinho · Martin Demichelis
Odds have moved in the last 24h — not advice, just worth knowing before you bet: Over/Under: Under 2.5 4.00→4.30 (+7.5%), Over/Under: Under 3.5 2.25→2.40 (+6.7%), Double Chance: Draw or Away 3.40→3.60 (+5.9%), Over/Under: Over 3.5 1.64→1.57 (-4.3%)
Preview

Real Madrid are 8th of 36 in UEFA Champions League 26/27, with 6 points from 2 games played.

RB Leipzig are 21st of 36, with 3 points from 2 games played.

Over their last 10, Real Madrid scored 2.7 and conceded 1.2 a game on average, and both teams scored in 70% of those.

RB Leipzig scored 2.5 and conceded 1.8 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 40%.

Real Madrid last played Sevilla (at home) and won 4-1.

RB Leipzig last played Bayern Munich (away) and lost 1-6.

Head-to-head, Real Madrid has 2W 1D 1L from the last 4 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Real Madrid
4Win0Draw1Loss
LaLiga
15 Sep 2026 · 20:30
ElcheE
2-3
RMReal Madrid
LaLiga
20 Sep 2026 · 15:15
AtleticoA
2-1
RMReal Madrid
LaLiga
10 Oct 2026 · 20:00
Real MadridRM
1-0
VVillarreal
RB Leipzig
3Win0Draw2Loss
Bundesliga
13 Sep 2026 · 14:30
LeipzigL
5-0
HHamburg
Bundesliga
20 Sep 2026 · 14:30
LeverkusenL
2-0
LLeipzig
Bundesliga
10 Oct 2026 · 17:30
LeipzigL
6-0
FFrankfurt

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
5110.2
61.240.8

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
132.681.6
132.681.6
Events
Team

Real Madrid scored in 15 of their last 15 home matches

Real Madrid over 1.5 goals · 82% chance
15 / 15
Goals scored

Leipzig didn't draw in 15 of their last 15 matches

Real Madrid or RB Leipzig (no draw) · 87% chance
15 / 15
No draws

Leipzig scored in 15 of their last 15 home matches

RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals · 66% chanceRB Leipzig over 1.5 goals · 30% chance
15 / 15
Goals scored

Leipzig won or saw over 2.5 goals in 15 of their last 15 home matches

RB Leipzig to win or over 2.5 goals · 82% chance
15 / 15
Won or over 2.5 goals

Leipzig didn't draw in 15 of their last 15 away matches

Real Madrid or RB Leipzig (no draw) · 87% chance
15 / 15
No draws

15 of Leipzig's last 15 away matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 90% chance
15 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

Real Madrid didn't draw in 14 of their last 15 matches

Real Madrid or RB Leipzig (no draw) · 87% chance
14 / 15
No draws

Real Madrid scored in 14 of their last 15 matches

Real Madrid over 1.5 goals · 82% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in UEFA Champions League

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
GD
Pts
PPG
Last 5
1
PS
Paris Saint-GermainWW
2
2
0
0
+7
6
3
WW
2
FB
FC BarcelonaWW
2
2
0
0
+7
6
3
WW
3
AV
Aston VillaWW
2
2
0
0
+7
6
3
WW
4
VS
VfB StuttgartWW
2
2
0
0
+5
6
3
WW
5
LF
Liverpool FCWW
2
2
0
0
+4
6
3
WW
6
SC
Sporting CPWW
2
2
0
0
+4
6
3
WW
7
AF
Arsenal FCWW
2
2
0
0
+4
6
3
WW
8
RM
Real MadridWW
2
2
0
0
+2
6
3
WW
9
RB
Real Betis SevilleWW
2
2
0
0
+2
6
3
WW
10
BM
Bayern MunichDW
2
1
1
0
+5
4
2
DW
11
FS
FC Shakhtar DonetskWD
2
1
1
0
+2
4
2
WD
12
C1
Como 1907LW
2
1
0
1
+2
3
1.5
LW
13
MU
Manchester UnitedLW
2
1
0
1
+2
3
1.5
LW
14
VC
Villarreal CFWL
2
1
0
1
+1
3
1.5
WL
15
AM
Atletico MadridWL
2
1
0
1
+1
3
1.5
WL
16
CB
Club BruggeWL
2
1
0
1
0
3
1.5
WL
17
MC
Manchester CityLW
2
1
0
1
0
3
1.5
LW
18
BD
Borussia DortmundLW
2
1
0
1
0
3
1.5
LW
19
RC
Racing Club De LensLW
2
1
0
1
-1
3
1.5
LW
20
AA
AEK AthensLWWD
2
1
0
1
-1
3
1.5
LWWD
21
RL
RB LeipzigWL
2
1
0
1
-2
3
1.5
WL
22
SM
Sabah MasazirWLWLW
2
1
0
1
-2
3
1.5
WLWLW
23
FR
Feyenoord RotterdamWL
2
1
0
1
-3
3
1.5
WL
24
B
Bodoe/GlimtWLWWW
2
1
0
1
-4
3
1.5
WLWWW
25
AR
AS RomaLD
2
0
1
1
-1
1
0.5
LD
26
PE
PSV EindhovenLD
2
0
1
1
-1
1
0.5
LD
27
VF
Viking FKDLWD
2
0
1
1
-2
1
0.5
DLWD
28
FI
Fenerbahce IstanbulLDWDW
2
0
1
1
-6
1
0.5
LDWDW
29
IM
Inter MilanoLL
2
0
0
2
-2
0
0
LL
30
FP
FC PortoLL
2
0
0
2
-3
0
0
LL
31
SP
Slavia PragueLL
2
0
0
2
-3
0
0
LL
32
SN
SSC NapoliLL
2
0
0
2
-3
0
0
LL
33
LL
LASK LinzLLWL
2
0
0
2
-4
0
0
LLWL
34
LO
Lille OSCLL
2
0
0
2
-4
0
0
LL
35
GI
Galatasaray IstanbulLL
2
0
0
2
-5
0
0
LL
36
SS
SK Slovan BratislavaLLWDW
2
0
0
2
-8
0
0
LLWDW
Playoffs Qualification Playoffs

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
Real Madrid
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
RB Leipzig
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
Real Madrid
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
RB Leipzig
Under
10% · 1 of 10
Over
90% · 9 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
Real Madrid
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
RB Leipzig
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
Real Madrid
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
RB Leipzig
Under
30% · 3 of 10
Over
70% · 7 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
Real Madrid
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
RB Leipzig
Under
50% · 5 of 10
Over
50% · 5 of 10
Our three best bets
Real Madrid to win
77% chance
both teams to score: Yes
63% chance
Over 3.5 · total goals
61% chance
Best value
Real Madrid to win
77% chance
both teams to score: Yes
63% chance
Real Madrid
Last 10 games
2.7
scored a game
1.2
conceded a game
Both teams scored70% of games
Over 2.5 goals80% of games
Kept a clean sheet20% of games
RB Leipzig
Last 10 games
2.5
scored a game
1.8
conceded a game
Both teams scored40% of games
Over 2.5 goals80% of games
Kept a clean sheet50% of games
Real Madrid
  • Out · Raul Asencio (Defender) — Injured
  • Out · Ferland Mendy (Defender) — Injured
  • ROut · Rodrygo (Forward) — Injured
RB Leipzig
  • Out · Christoph Baumgartner (Midfielder) — Injured
  • Out · Marc Guiu (Forward) — Injured
  • Out · Assan Ouedraogo (Midfielder) — Injured
UEFA Champions League
14 Oct 2026 · 20:00
RomaR
3-4
RMReal Madrid
LaLiga
18 Oct 2026 · 20:00
Real MadridRM
4-1
SSevilla
Goals scored
13
2.6 per game
Goals conceded
8
1.6 per game
UEFA Champions League
13 Oct 2026 · 20:00
LeipzigL
1-0
EEindhoven
Bundesliga
17 Oct 2026 · 17:30
Bayern MunichBM
6-1
LLeipzig
Goals scored
13
2.6 per game
Goals conceded
8
1.6 per game