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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

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18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

J2 League · Round 12
Albirex Niigata
Sagan Tosu
11:00Wed
28%
44%
Draw28%

Sagan Tosu are the stronger side

DLWDL

last 5 games

WLWWW

last 5 games

Stadium
Tohoku Denryoku Big Swan Stadium, Niigata · 41,684 seats
Odds have moved in the last 24h — not advice, just worth knowing before you bet: Over/Under: Under 1.5 3.10→2.95 (-4.8%)
Preview

Albirex Niigata are 3rd of 20 in J2 League 26/27, with 20 points from 11 games played.

Sagan Tosu are 12th of 20, with 14 points from 11 games played.

Over their last 10, Albirex Niigata scored 1.4 and conceded 1.9 a game on average, and both teams scored in 70% of those.

Sagan Tosu scored 1 and conceded 1.1 a game over the same span, and both teams scored in 40%.

Albirex Niigata last played Oita (away) and lost 1-5.

Sagan Tosu last played Omiya ArdijaA (at home) and won 2-1.

Head-to-head, Albirex Niigata has 2W 1D 3L from the last 6 meetings, averaging 3 goals a game.

Last 5 matches

Every competition. Scores are coloured from each team's side: green won, orange drew, red lost. Tap the arrow to see the first half.

18+ · Estimates, not guarantees. The win chance shown is the model's view. Bet responsibly.

Albirex Niigata
1Win2Draw2Loss
J.League 2
26 Sep 2026 · 09:00
Blaublitz ABA
2-2
AAlbirex
J. League Cup
29 Sep 2026 · 11:00
MatsumotoM
1-0
AAlbirex
J.League 2
03 Oct 2026 · 06:00
AlbirexA
2-1
VVortis
Sagan Tosu
4Win0Draw1Loss
J. League Cup
29 Sep 2026 · 11:00
TosuT
2-1
TVTokyo V
J.League 2
04 Oct 2026 · 06:00
Blaublitz ABA
1-0
TTosu
J.League 2
10 Oct 2026 · 06:00
TosuT
1-0
FFujieda

First half goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
40.851
20.410.2

Final goals

Goals scoredper gameGoals concededper game
61.2102
71.440.8
Events
Team

Albirex didn't draw in 15 of their last 15 home matches

Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu (no draw) · 71% chance
15 / 15
No draws

Tosu didn't draw in 15 of their last 15 home matches

Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu (no draw) · 71% chance
15 / 15
No draws

Tosu scored in 15 of their last 15 home matches

Sagan Tosu over 0.5 goals · 75% chanceSagan Tosu over 1.5 goals · 40% chance
15 / 15
Goals scored

15 of Tosu's last 15 home matches had a goal in the 2nd half

Over 0.5 goals in the 2nd half · 75% chance
15 / 15
Total goals 2nd Half: +0.5

Tosu won or saw over 2.5 goals in 15 of their last 15 home matches

Sagan Tosu to win or over 2.5 goals · 64% chance
15 / 15
Won or over 2.5 goals

Albirex won or saw over 2.5 goals in 14 of their last 15 home matches

Albirex Niigata to win or over 2.5 goals · 57% chance
14 / 15
Won or over 2.5 goals

Albirex scored in 14 of their last 15 home matches in J2 League

Albirex Niigata over 0.5 goals · 65% chanceAlbirex Niigata over 1.5 goals · 28% chance
14 / 15
Goals scored

Albirex won at least one half in 14 of their last 15 home matches in J2 League

Albirex Niigata to win either half · 43% chance
14 / 15
Won at least one half

A pattern in past results, not a prediction. Each one shows the longest run of recent games where it held at least 80% of the time.

Standings of Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu in J.League 2

#
Team
MP
W
D
L
GD
Pts
PPG
Last 5
1
VS
Vegalta SendaiDWWWW
11
7
3
1
+10
24
2.18
DWWWW
2
RO
RB Omiya ArdijaLWDWD
11
5
5
1
+10
20
1.82
LWDWD
3
AN
Albirex NiigataLDWDW
11
6
2
3
-4
20
1.82
LDWDW
4
KT
Kataller ToyamaDDWDW
11
5
4
2
+9
19
1.73
DDWDW
5
YF
Yokohama FCDLWDW
11
5
3
3
+6
18
1.64
DLWDW
6
SB
Shonan BellmareDDDWD
11
4
6
1
+2
18
1.64
DDDWD
7
OT
Oita TrinitaWWWDD
11
4
5
2
+7
17
1.55
WWWDD
8
IF
Iwaki FCWWLLW
11
5
0
6
+1
15
1.36
WWLLW
9
FM
Fujieda MYFCDLDDD
11
3
5
3
+2
14
1.27
DLDDD
10
TM
Tegevajaro MiyazakiDDDWW
11
3
5
3
0
14
1.27
DDDWW
11
JI
Jubilo IwataDWLLL
11
4
2
5
-1
14
1.27
DWLLL
12
ST
Sagan TosuWWLLL
11
4
2
5
-2
14
1.27
WWLLL
13
TV
Tokushima VortisDLLWW
11
4
2
5
-2
14
1.27
DLLWW
14
MY
Montedio YamagataDLLWL
11
4
1
6
+2
13
1.18
DLLWL
15
BA
Blaublitz AkitaLLWDD
11
3
4
4
0
13
1.18
LLWDD
16
TC
Tochigi City FCDLLLL
11
3
2
6
-1
11
1
DLLLL
17
HC
Hokkaido Consadole SapporoWLWLD
11
3
2
6
-6
11
1
WLWLD
18
FI
FC ImabariDWWLL
11
3
2
6
-8
11
1
DWWLL
19
VH
Vanraure Hachinohe FCDLLWL
11
3
2
6
-11
11
1
DLLWL
20
VK
Ventforet KofuLWLLL
11
3
1
7
-14
10
0.91
LWLLL
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation

Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu: pre-match stats

For each team, in how many of its recent matches did this happen? Based on its last 10 matches, in any competition.

Part of the match
Which matches
What to look at
Total goals in the match: over or under 0.5
Albirex Niigata
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Sagan Tosu
Under
0% · 0 of 10
Over
100% · 10 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 1.5
Albirex Niigata
Under
20% · 2 of 10
Over
80% · 8 of 10
Sagan Tosu
Under
40% · 4 of 10
Over
60% · 6 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 2.5
Albirex Niigata
Under
30% · 3 of 10
Over
70% · 7 of 10
Sagan Tosu
Under
60% · 6 of 10
Over
40% · 4 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 3.5
Albirex Niigata
Under
60% · 6 of 10
Over
40% · 4 of 10
Sagan Tosu
Under
90% · 9 of 10
Over
10% · 1 of 10
Total goals in the match: over or under 4.5
Albirex Niigata
Under
70% · 7 of 10
Over
30% · 3 of 10
Sagan Tosu
Under
100% · 10 of 10
Over
0% · 0 of 10
Our three best bets
Under 3.5 · total goals
75% chance
draw or Sagan Tosu
72% chance
Sagan Tosu (draw no bet)
62% chance
Best value
Sagan Tosu (draw no bet)
62% chance
Albirex Niigata or Sagan Tosu
72% chance
Albirex Niigata
Last 10 games
1.4
scored a game
1.9
conceded a game
Both teams scored70% of games
Over 2.5 goals70% of games
Kept a clean sheet10% of games
Sagan Tosu
Last 10 games
1
scored a game
1.1
conceded a game
Both teams scored40% of games
Over 2.5 goals40% of games
Kept a clean sheet20% of games
No injury list for this league, so absences are unknown — this isn't the same as "no injuries".
Albirex Niigata
Sagan Tosu
J.League 2
11 Oct 2026 · 10:00
ShonanS
1-1
AAlbirex
J.League 2
17 Oct 2026 · 06:00
OitaO
5-1
AAlbirex
Goals scored
6
1.2 per game
Goals conceded
10
2 per game
J. League Cup
14 Oct 2026 · 11:00
TosuT
2-1
AAvispa
J.League 2
17 Oct 2026 · 06:00
TosuT
2-1
OAOmiya ArdijaA
Goals scored
7
1.4 per game
Goals conceded
4
0.8 per game